Thursday, July 1, 2004

New Texicans

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   The potential Dallas/LA trade will make the NBA's balance of power a North/South thing. East(Rocky Graziano knocked out a man who asked him, "East side of what?") vs West will only matter if you mean East or West Texas. San Antonio, Houston and Dallas all have the guns to go after Detroit, and Dallas is trying to land a dreadnought. Texas has neve been much of a bystander state, and they look to dominate NBA talk this summer.

   LA seems willing to deal Shaq Daddy, as long as Dirk Nowitzki is involved. Dallas, not wanting to go 10-72 when Shaq retires, seeks to offer any package that does not contain the Diggler. LA refuses to bite on Mike Finley, who is signed to make $18 milly in 2009. Antoine Walker's cap space- $14 million in the summer of 2005- may or may not be involved, as may (or may not) Stackhouse, Nash, Daniels, Harris, Pazodl...ummm, Pavel, or Howard.

  Shaq doesn't guarantee a championship, but he gives you a hell of a shot. He is the single biggest matchup problem in the NBA. Teamed with whoever LA doesn't take, Shaq could make a run of it in Dallas. Still, a starting 5 of Shaq/Finley/Harris/Howard/Walker is no guaranteed title winner- Detroit just got finished whipping a much better Shaq squad last month. Finley and Shaq will eat up most of the salary cap themselves in 2008. Dallas would have to be ready to win...now.

 LA would field a Nowitzki/Malone/Stackhouse/Bryant/GP squad. Formidable, but beatable. Kobe and Shaq is a better bet than any of the other squads I listed above. Maybe LA should have traded Shaq for that 8 foot Chinese guy who couldn't know or care less what Kobe says. Unless Shaq sucks it up and plays out his contract, LA is free to shop him this summer.

   Wherever he lands becomes an instant contender. If they have to empty the vault to get the Big Man, there just may not be much around him. Boston could get Shaq, but the lineup would be Shaq/Walter McCarty, Jumaine Jones, Chucky Atkins and Jiri Welsch...and Boston would go 4-78 the year after Shaq retired.

   Portland  could offer Theo Ratliff and the Sha of I-Reef. Miami could work Grant, Jones and Butler. Washington could offer Kwame, Hughes and Arenas. Boston could offer Pierce, LaFrenz and Davis. Should be a fun summer in LA.

 

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   A Tale of Two Cities happened in the Francis/McGrady deal. Orlando sucked with McGrady. They will suck with Francis and Mobely, too. They know this, which is why they took the high school kid in the draft.    

    If Howard sets the league afire as a rookie, they have a backcourt and a defensive center in place. If he takes a few years, they have time to collect Lottery picks. Orlando's best player is 18 years old...they can wait.

    Francis is owed $68 million through 2009, and will be as much a fixture in Orlando as Space Mountain. Grant Hill takes a $45 million bite out of Orlando's cap for the next 3 years, and not much help will be forthcoming once Howard signs. The only cheap help they can afford will be through rookies, which will leave Orlando looking at 2007 with 3 studs led by the veteran Francis.

   Houston, on the other hand, is aiming to build a contender. Last year, they were the worst team in Texas. Texas has Duncan, and may have Shaq before August. Houston needed to score big. They got the NBA's scoring leader, who immediately becomes the funkiest man in Texas. The Rockets plan to build around TMac and Ming. "Ming" is the first word in much Dynasty talk.

     Almost as an afterthought, they picked up Juwan Howard, who is in position to contribute. The Christmas Wish of the 6'8" power forward is a 7'6" center. They cover a lot of flaws in one's game, and free one up to do some low post scoring. Taylor and Howard are an effective platoon system- when used in conjunction with Ming. Howard is barely holding off Dwight as the 5th coolest Howard in American History. They both trail Hughes, Stern, Cosell and Moe.

   McGrady is a splendid guard, but the bench is so thin, the team is prohibited by labor laws from signing Oliver Miller. They have only Lue at point guard, and Mr. McGrady will consume most of their shopping money next summer.

    As it stands right now, they are still the third best team in Texas...especially if Shaq suddenly develops the need for one of those silly hats. They may be the 4th best team if Parcells gets the Cowboys in the playoffs again.

 

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