"Tell him to send the National Guard"

Week 3

Das Patriots are 2-0, but they face a tough test in Denver this weekend. We started off easy with the J-E-T-S and Buffy, and we barely got by both of them. There's nothing easy about the Broncos. 

Denver has always had our number. They must have beaten us something like 200 straight years. I'm sure that the Broncos own a prominent place in Drew Bledsoe's nightmares, and they're the only team yet that made Champagne Tom Brady look like a sucker in the playoffs.

They have a superb running game- always have had it, now that I think about it. Christina Aguilera could go for 100 yards a game running in that system. Denver uses a cheapo chop blocking scheme that- for the uninitiated- basically involves throwing themselves into the knees and anterior cruciate ligaments of the other team's rushers.  They've crippled more men than polio, and I'll be wincing as they look to shorten the season of one of our superb young linemen.

They have a unique quarterback situation, in that the better QB is most likely not the one who will be running ship when the Broncs take the field. Jake the Snake Plummer has never truly had the confidence of his team, and Bill Parcells once said that the most popular guy on any bad team is the backup QB. Jay Cutler is a rookie, but how sharp he's looked is the talk of the NFL.

The defense is sort of patched together, although cornerback Champ Bailey is among the best at his position in the game. Fast, intelligent, good-looking... the kid reminds me a lot of myself, if I may be so bold.

You've seen as much of New England as I have, so we'll worry about them having nobody to throw to some other week. We can run the ball a bit ourselves, although New England/Denver games almost always end up as shootouts.

As for this week, I'll base my pick on something that won't come near the playing field- the abstract concept of the team's record. Bad teams start 2-0, and great teams start 0-2. You have to be careful not to blame the cold on the sneeze, though. Records don't mean much once the ball starts moving and the legs start breaking.

Still, Denver is 1-1 right now, and are probably far too good of a team to be 1-2 after 3 weeks. Likewise, I can't see Reche Caldwell starting for an undefeated team, and we're 2-0. This perfect storm of variables will collide with Sunday's game to give the Pats a 2-1 record that will still lead their division.

We may even see one of Belly Check's pet moves... the Fattening. Denver looks to be a team we'll meet again in the playoffs, God willing. New England is still ironing out a few kinks in the ol' roster/gameplan thingamajig. Nobody in the AFC East looks THAT good, so it's not like we can't afford to gag on one now and then.

Come out with the most vanilla offense you can, have a few key players fake injury to get a nice rest, show them nothing as far as how you'd really play them when the game matters, see exactly how they'll be coming after you when the game matters (they can't aford to lose this one and be 1-2) to them, and Win by Losing.

Belly Check is big into military history, and he no doubt knows that losing a battle may just win the war now and then. Lots of armies give up ground, so as to absorb an attacker. Hannibal did it at Cannae, and the Boche pulled sort of the same thing on my old hometown. Draw them into a trap by letting them think they hold the edge, then reach out and smack them down like a short-changed pimp when the games matter.

Double envelopement. They'll be too deep into the trap to extricate themselves, and it's one and out in January. I'd take Denver this week with any point spread you can find.

Denver, 30-13

I'm working without the spread this week, as I do every week. I never let the Mafia dictate my football calls. East Of Boston is 100% pure as the driven snow, although we'll be adding the point spreads once we get them.

I'm 24-8 this season, although- the last/only time I checked- I was 9-7 against the spread.

Chicago at Minnesota

Rex Grossman is the top-rated passer in the NFL at the moment. He's also the most injury-prone person walking God's Green Earth today. I'll go $20 with whoever wants some, saying he'll be injured for at least part of this season, if not all of it. He should be safe this week, though.

Chicago, 16-13

New York at Buffalo

New England's first two wins go at it for what is essentially the thrown bouquet of the AFC East. One of them will be 2-1 when the smoke clears, and quite possibly tied for the lead.. albeit with the team that already whipped their candy asses.

Jets, 13-12

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Much like Denver always beats us, Pittsburgh always beats Cincy. These things become a self-actualizing prophecy, to the point where I could watch Big Ben pull his head out of a windshield and still bet on him to beat Cincy that very same day. Cincy is too good to get blown out, but I'd give a few points to the right bookie.

Pittsburgh, 18-14

Detroit at Green Bay

Both teams are winless. They can't both lose this game... although they can tie. OK.. Why not Detroit? Losing to the Millen Man March might give Brett Favre the impetus to retire before the O-Favre record becomes reality.

Detroit, 9-7

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

The NFL wants Peyton Manning in the Super Bowl, and one of the few important regular season games for the Colts is against a foe coming off a short week after playing the Super Bowl champs the previous Monday. The best part? Manning will still lose this January.

Indianapolis, 31-17

Carolina at Tampa Bay

Steve Smith returns for the Pants. Carol and Tampa are both 0-2. One of these teams is going to be essentially out of the playoffs by Sunday night, and my money is on the dork coach with the visor.

Carolina, 21-17

Washington at Houston

Another 0-2 battle occurs as billions sleep in blissful ignorance in Asia.

Washington, 21-16

Miami at Tennessee

Miami is having a rough year, but they simply HAVE to be good enough to beat a Tennessee team that might lose to the Bourne High powderpuff winner.

Miami, 17-10

Baltimore at Cleveland

I'm tempted to go for the shutout here, but I'll give Romeo Crennel the benefit of the doubt. I'll also give him an 8 point spread.

Baltimore, 15-6

Philadelphia at San Francisco

Philly doesn't miss T.O. They just miss having a wide reciever that may actually score. The Niners have improved, but Rome wasn't built in a day, folks.

Philly, 24-10

St. Louis at Arizona

My sister worked at a Red Lobster in Arizona, and she claims that she saw Cardinals behemoth Leonard Davis eat 13 lobsters in a sitting. My bet this week is based on that, and that alone.

Arizona, 17-16

New York Giants at Seattle

Another Manning  at QB, which means that the New York Football Giants will look like gangbusters in October before falling apart like a Korean TV set in the playoffs. This game helps solidify that future reality.

NYG, 28-14

Atlanta at New Orleans

It's probably evil of me to wish that a tropical storm would hit New Orleans for what is essentially their Homecoming game after a year-long Katrina-motivated absence. Still... good TV is good TV, and trust me... they laugh at us during our blizzards. One of my best friends is from Ponchatoula, Louisiana, so I'm not just making this up. I see the Saints taking a terrific beating at the hands of Ron Mexico.

Hotlanta, 28-10